Apple doesn't need Jobs, analyst says
Apple doesn't need Steve Jobs, an analyst argued Monday.
Early on Friday, Apple shares slid below US$100 for the first time since May 2007 after a false report circulated that Apple's 53-year-old CEO had suffered a major heart attack. The report, posted on iReport.com, a "citizen journalist" Web site operated by CNN, was quickly denied by Apple, but not before the share price had slid nearly 11%.
The panic was unwarranted, said Ezra Gottheil, an analyst with Technology Business Research Inc.
"Apple doesn't need Jobs anymore," Gottheil said. "He's established three sound businesses -- Mac, iPod and the iPhone -- and the company knows how to execute his fanatical devotion to design and usability. There's a stable management team in place, and they know what they're doing."
Investors have been nervous about Jobs' health since last June, when he appeared gaunt at Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference. Although company spokespeople said Jobs was under the weather from a "common bug," his appearance fueled speculation that he was again seriously ill, a reference to Jobs' 2004 announcement that he had had surgery to remove a cancerous tumor in his pancreas. Jobs in July told The New York Times that he is healthy.
Since then, other incidents, including the accidental posting of Jobs' obituary by Bloomberg financial news service in August, have caused investors to question the company's future sans Jobs.
They shouldn't be so worried, said Gottheil. "Without Jobs, Apple would have to pay a lot more to get the world's attention," he said, referring to the CEO's knack for promoting his company's products. "But he's got a company and a brand and an organization and a strategy in place. There's no reason to think that those things can't be carried forward without him."
If Jobs stepped down, Tim Cook, currently chief operating officer, would run the company, Gottheil said. Cook ran Apple while Jobs out in 2004 after his cancer surgery. Jonathan Ive, Apple's senior vice president for industrial design, would pick up the reins on product design.
The July hiring of former Segway Inc. chief technology officer Doug Field as Apple's new vice president of design, Gottheil speculated, is an attempt by Apple to free up Ive to take on a more strategic view of product design.
That's not to say that Apple wouldn't be different. It would play things more conservatively without Jobs, Gottheil believes. "It may not be able to make the inspired guesses that created the iPod and the iPhone," he said. But those leaps aren't necessary for Apple to continue. "We believe that sort of risk-taking is no longer necessary, and the current management can build very effectively on what Jobs has created," Gottheil added.
And Gottheil is realistic to know that Apple's shares will invariably take a hit when Jobs does leave the company. "All this is not to say that the market won't react. Investors will certainly panic until they see proof that the management team can continue," he said.
"But I see Apple after Jobs as Ford after Henry Ford," Gottheil said. "The acolytes have incorporated the main teachings of Jobs. He's created a process and a culture that will continue."
» posted by ITworld staff
Computerworld
Build your tech library with our book giveaways.
Hacking Exposed, Sixth Edition
By Stuart McClure, Joel Scambray, George Kurtz; Published by McGraw-Hill/Osborne
The original Hacking Exposed authors rejoin forces on this tenth anniversary edition to offer completely up-to-date coverage of today's most devastating hacks and how to prevent them. Using their proven methodology, the authors reveal how to locate and patch system vulnerabilities. The book includes new coverage of ISO images, wireless and RFID attacks, Web 2.0 vulnerabilities, anonymous hacking tools, Ubuntu, Windows Server 2008, mobile devices, and more. Enter now!
Not Quite
I beg to differ, just a little. It was that phrase:"and the company knows how to execute his fanatical devotion to design and usability"
From everything I've read, when the new product gets to Steve it's already good, "Apple-worthy" might be a good way to put it (something I just made up).
. .
But where Steve makes the difference is that Steve will push his people to make it even smaller, even more useable, that much better. It's his pushing, cajoling and the like that takes the product from very good or even great to iconic.
. .
The good people at Apple DO get it, but it may still take Steve for that last push.